The first cold front of autumn is moving across the U.S. and the jet stream is providing favorable winds for migrating ducks and geese. The explosion of fall colors has ushered in the opening of the 2009-2010 Waterfowl Season in various states and young waterfowl hunters have already enjoyed the first of the Special Youth Waterfowl hunts of the season. With temperatures in the far south dipping into the 50s this week, seasoned waterfowl hunters can be found looking to the north and grinning to themselves. The long off-season has ended and it’s game on for the grand tradition of Waterfowl Hunting.
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As the jet stream and temperatures drive south, another push of blue-winged teal activity has ignited in the south central states and these birds will continue to move towards their tropical wintering grounds.
While blue-winged teal activity has been early and above average in many survey areas, the hardier green-winged teal has yet to make a massive appearance on the migration route. Surveys indicate that throughout most of September, blue-winged teal numbers were nearly double the 10-year average and green-winged teal were nearly 50% or more below long-term averages. With the populations of teal nearly equal for both species, hunters can expect a continued presence of teal during the early portion of northern seasons.
The current cold front, which has dropped temperatures an average of 25 degrees across the U.S. from this time last week, is expected to fuel migration activity over the next few days and hunters in the north should expect increased activity from green-winged teal, wood ducks, gadwall, widgeon, pintail and red heads. The first flights of lesser Canada geese have been reported in the northern reaches of the Central and Mississippi Flyways, as numbers begin their traditional slow build.
Of course, weather moves ducks and the wild card for the season is the current El Nino event in the tropical Pacific. Traditional El Nino jet streams run flat along the U.S. and Canadian border and it is not uncommon for prairie teal and other ducks to be pushed all they way to the Atlantic Flyway, as tracked by waterfowl leg band recoveries. This is not to say that the bulk of waterfowl will completely change flyways during an El Nino event, but occurrence is much higher.
Without a doubt the primary influence on the migration this season will be the battle between the El Nino event and traditional arctic weather systems. The “dry spells” of migration activity will be determined by how frequent cold air in Canada can force it’s way south and bend the jet stream in favor of good duck and goose hunting.
Hunter success during El Nino years varies greatly. Hunting the days following the front are even more important as the fronts leading up to the big push are mild and only spawn a trickle migration. As history shows, the El Nino jet stream creates a barrier of migration until a massive cold air system can no longer be contained and an arctic clipper system drives winter and waterfowl to southern climates in an instant. Until that hard push, hunters will need to monitor isolated migration activity and hunt species that are on the move offering the best opportunity for success. Hunters willing to scout and those who are most mobile will have the best success. For those hunters that head to a traditional spot all season long and look to the north and hope for ducks, realize that “hope” will likely arrive in a hard pushing during early December if this season follows historical El Nino patterns.
As many of us continue to countdown to opening day, we wish the best of luck to those who’s season has already opened and encourage those with a coming to special youth season to make an extra effort to introduce a young hunter into the sport.
Until our next report, hunt safe and hunt often. We look forward to sharing the season with you on our state-by-state hunting reports.
